On the Importance of Drones on the Battlefield and on the Prospects of Ukraine in Military Drone Production

Key points — in our brief. #UkraineWorldAnalysis

On the importance of drones on the battlefield

• Drones are an element of the technological system Ukraine uses to connect different units and forces. Reconnaissance constitutes 95% of drone operations. Reconnaissance means information, and the side with the best information has the most opportunities on the battlefield.
• Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, drones have been a key tool for getting  information from the battlefield to decision makers. For a short period of time, they can collect a large amount of data in the safest way for the operator.
• War is not static. The side which reacts quickly to changes in the external environment, documents them, digitizes them and transfers them to their command centers has a critical advantage. This process used to take hours, if not days. Modern technologies allow us to do it instantly.
• In Ukraine, drones are included in the military's operational ecosystem. These are various software products that enable Ukrainian military to provide real-time information about the situation on the battlefield online using satellite communication terminals. Action can be seen in seconds. This is how modern Ukrainian artillery works. It resembles some kind of NASA center with dozens of displays. Soldiers see where to fire and where enemy fire is coming from. They control not only the firing of their artillery, but also its ammunition, allowing troops to switch away from rounds which are insufficiently effective.

On the production of drones in Ukraine

• The largest amount of equipment used by Ukraine in the air is reconnaissance drones. They can be categorized by range: up to 10 km, up to 50 km, and over 50 km. Ukraine uses the 10-km range drones the most. For this purpose, we rely on consumer drone products, which can be bought anywhere. It makes no sense for Ukraine to produce drones of this type, because they are widely manufactured and present all around the world. Therefore, this type of drone is mostly imported.
• However, Ukraine is producing other types of drones, such as aircraft-type drones with a range of more than 10 km, or drones that carry certain projectiles.
• With these drones, Ukrainian battlefield experience enabled a breakthrough in production. These drones have appeared quickly and in large quantities. Lots of different types are being produced, including carbon-plastic, composite, metal, drones for reconnaissance, internal combustion engine-powered drones, electric drones, and much more. Some of these remain as prototypes, while others are entering mass production. Ukraine has started setting global trends here.

Ukraine in the global drone-production market

• Ukraine has already taken a leading position in the production of drone technologies, even though little has been said publicly about it. After the end of war, Ukraine will immediately become a very powerful player in the world defense technology industry. Other players also understand this. In addition to the technology itself offered, Ukraine also offers a strong competitive advantage on price. However, for this to happen, Ukrainian military tech producers need to develop an understanding of market.

Several examples of Ukrainian drones production

• There are no open sources which provide precise information, but it is possible to look at projects from before the full-scale war that have transformed themselves for military ends.
• The AeroDrone company was founded by Ukrainian Microsoft engineers. Before the war, their drones were used in agriculture. They also worked in logistics with cargo delivery between cities. After the Russian invasion in 2014, their Discovery drone was was adopted for military missions.
• The Skyeton company out-competed industry giants like Boeing to win a contract producing drones to patrol the seas for Pirates.
• There are currently several dozens of such companies in Ukraine, and there are set to be even more. Some of them are big companies, but some aren't public.

Reconnaissance drones vs. combat drones

• Drones were used for strike purposes at the beginning of the full-scale war in less than 1% of missions. Now, that level is up to 3-4%. The wide media coverage of how this technology is being used makes it seem that the use of strike drones is extremely common. In fact, it is very difficult to operate drones for these missions. Strike drones inflict damage upon the enemy, but using them for smart reconnaissance provides the most opportunities.
• Ukraine's use of drones to carry out strikes has evolved since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. There are drones that are already being used against armor or for long-range missions. They are operated by soldiers who already have highly specialized training.
• As this technology develops in the future, we will see it move beyond manual flying and operation of drones. It will also involve the combination of technologies, the development of new types of autopilots, and the development of airborne target recognition technologies.
• Strike drones will see significant changes in software and with the unification of control systems, because first-person view drones and strike drones are very different from each other in terms of their functionality and operation. Unfortunately, units that have been trained on one type of drone have difficulty switching to another type. They need training. That's why unification is needed.
• There's a rapid technological revolution ongoing with strike drones. While at one point they were only able to essentially maintain the temperature on the battlefield, there are now changes underway that enable them to fundamentally change the tactical situation. This is happening before our eyes.

ANASTASIIA HERASYMCHUK, ANALYST AND JOURNALIST AT UKRAINEWORLD

Valeriy Iakovenko, the founder of DroneUA and Drone Expert at the UN FAO